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Monday, March 18, 2013

NCAA Men's Tournament Picks: First Round Analysis

Readers! This is a PSA: Don't be fooled by the egotistical ESPN analysts who consistently get their picks wrong! I am encouraging you to be lazy and look brilliant! Just take my bracket, change a few of the  matchups and you will be on your way to talking trash and collecting $$$. This is the only test in which you get EXTRA credit for plagiarism. Work smarter NOT harder!

If all else fails pick teams by color, mascot or year of establishment (older school wins).

Sportsweezy bracket

Challenge me or copy me on ESPN: Printable Bracket

I picked all #1 and #2 seeds to go through. Why? 100% winning percentage for #1 seeds and 95% for #2 seeds over the course of tournament history (although a #15 seed won twice against #2 seeds last year). If a #2 seed loses it is not a surprise. BUT I'm not blowing up my bracket to make that kind of call but you can! Lets focus on the matchups that will get you points in rounds 1-2. The percentage next to each seeding is the winning percentage of the lower seed otherwise known as 'the favorite').

#3 vs #14 (83%)
Marquette vs Davidson (Davidson has a roster full of juniors and seniors who play to their strengths. Think that really annoying old guy in the gym that plays like he is being scouted, then multiply that by 5).
New Mexico vs Harvard (I'm not picking an Ivy League team, unless its a spelling bee).
Florida vs NW State (Nobody has seen or heard of NW St but apparently they are the highest scoring team in the nation (81 ppg), but also give up almost as many points per game, I'm taking the Gators all day long and twice on Friday).
St Louis vs New Mexico St (St Louis is an experienced, deliberate offensive team that plays great defense many experts are picking them for a deep run).

#4 vs #13 (80%)
Michigan vs South Dakota St (Trey Burke/Hardaway Jr is great backcourt, but SDSU will be a tough out because of Nate Wolters (23ppg 6rebs 6assts, I'm slightly leaning towards Michigan)).
Syracuse vs Montana (Syracuse has found there shooting touch and Montana should only be referred to as a fly fishing destination).
Kansas St vs BSU/Lasalle (KSU is coached by ultra-defensive Bruce Weber whereas BSU is one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation, I'll take BSU).
Michigan St vs Valparaiso (Valpo is a dangerous team full of seniors and coached by Bryce Drew but MSU has too much strength).

#5 vs #12 (67%)
Wisconsin vs. Mississippi ('Ole Miss' is actually a nickname of a slaveowner's wife..yes this is 2013. They paper over their cracks via a great 3 point shooter in Henderson, but UW is a better team. The only racist mascot I like are the Redskins).
UNLV vs California (UNLV has an NBA level center and has already beaten Cal in early December, I think they do it again).
Oklahoma St vs Oregon (Okla St has two legitimate ballers in Smart and Brown plus a stingy defense, me likes that).
VCU vs Akron (VCU has a high pressure 'havoc' defense + Akron lost their starting PG to injury = VCU wins).

#6 vs #11 (69%)
Butler vs Bucknell (Butler is in a new role as a favorite but Bucknell matches up well with them and is a solid veteran team that shoots the ball extremely well).
Memphis vs Middle Tenn St/St Mary's (MTSU/St Mary's both have multiple scoring options and are deep teams; I think Memphis goes down in a close game to MTSU but beats St Mary's).
Arizona vs Belmont (Belmont is senior laden, lives and dies by the three and in a one-off tourney game I like it).
UCLA vs Minnesota (UCLA struggles with athletic, big teams: see Minnesota).

#7 vs #10 (60%)
Creighton vs Cincinnati (Cincy turns the ball over a lot and has poor offensive efficiency whereas Creighton has a veteran squad that can shoot the lights out, Creighton your prayers have been answered).
Illinois vs Colorado (CU has the law firm of Dinwidde and Roberson and Illinois has no representation, which spells a CU win in the court of Sportsweezy opinion).
Notre Dame vs Iowa St (ISU hasn't been this much fun to watch since...well, ever, but their former coach (Larry Eustachy) is an alcoholic and his post-game activities included this. Seriously ISU has senior guards McGee and Clyburn and their phenomenal offensive play, I vote ISU).
San Diego St vs Oklahoma (OU has limited scoring options and this is their first time in the tournament for anyone on their team, that is a tasty recipe for a first round exit even against these beach bums).

#8 vs #9 (47%) 
The 8 vs 9 game is a toss up, but the next round your #1 has an 88% chance of going through regardless of what team wins this matchup. Therefore with the exception of the potential UNC vs Kansas matchup, I'm not concerned with 8 vs 9 games. My winners are UNC, Colorado St (Larry Eustachy ended up here btw), Temple and Witchita State.

Second round analysis coming tomorrow! The remaining round analysis' will be completed on Wednesday and I will update my bracket based on the play-in game results Wednesday as well (i.e. Boise St vs Lasalle).



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