Lets agree on one thing about the NCAA Men's Basketball tournament, bracketology is a myth. Which is why the experts often get their picks wrong. This is especially true this year where every team has major weaknesses causing parity throughout division 1. However, since you all need the help of an expert, I am willing to give it the ol' college try even though y'all got me more tense than a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs (Duck Dynasty voice). If you don't know, you need to watch that show on A&E.
If I were trying to win, I would try to use some sort of metric to track winning percentages by seed. I am going strictly on percentages on each seed progressing to the next round and gut feelings about certain teams and matchups. In 99% of brackets, you get the most points for selecting the correct final four team and Championship game matchup plus the winner of the tournament. Everyone dreams of picking a cinderella but keep your picks focused on the big picture. As you move through the rounds, your #1 and #2 seeds will wipe out cinderella's in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight. So don't sweat it.
Winning Percentage based on History
The #1 seed has beaten the #16 seed all 88 times (100%).
The #2 seed has beaten the #15 seed 84 times (95%).
The #3 seed has beaten the #14 seed 73 times (83%).
The #4 team has beaten the #13 seed 70 times (80%).
The #5 seed has beaten the #12 seed 59 times (67%).
The #6 seed has beaten the #11 seed 61 times (69%).
The #7 team has beaten the #10 seed 53 times (60%).
The #8 team has beaten the #9 seed 41 times (47%).
Important Tips:
If I were trying to win, I would try to use some sort of metric to track winning percentages by seed. I am going strictly on percentages on each seed progressing to the next round and gut feelings about certain teams and matchups. In 99% of brackets, you get the most points for selecting the correct final four team and Championship game matchup plus the winner of the tournament. Everyone dreams of picking a cinderella but keep your picks focused on the big picture. As you move through the rounds, your #1 and #2 seeds will wipe out cinderella's in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight. So don't sweat it.
Winning Percentage based on History
The #1 seed has beaten the #16 seed all 88 times (100%).
The #2 seed has beaten the #15 seed 84 times (95%).
The #3 seed has beaten the #14 seed 73 times (83%).
The #4 team has beaten the #13 seed 70 times (80%).
The #5 seed has beaten the #12 seed 59 times (67%).
The #6 seed has beaten the #11 seed 61 times (69%).
The #7 team has beaten the #10 seed 53 times (60%).
The #8 team has beaten the #9 seed 41 times (47%).
Important Tips:
- Do yourself a favor and pencil all No. 1 and 2 seeds into the second round. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, the top two teams in each reason have gone a combined 204-4.
- Pick at least one number #1 seed will make the Final Four. There has been only one year where a #1 seed has not been in the Final Four.
- Pick at least one #12 seed to win its first round game and one #11 seed as well.
- The NCAA tournament is about great guard play, so when in doubt, select the team with the better VETERAN guards.
- If a team has a big-time player, they can carry a team through the first two rounds. If you are really undecided about a matchup, select the team with a primetime player.
- Pick one ACC team in your Final Four, it just so happens that they make it there quite often.
Good luck everyone! Just kidding.
I will write a separate blog about my selections (with a link) and the reasoning behind them. At least you have a head start research-wise on your office pool or online pool. Then we can compare notes! You know...or not.
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