So far what we know about John Wall is that he is a great athlete and he has his own dance and moniker (Wallin). Pre-Harlem shake this was a dance craze.Yes I'm serious. Another little tidbit, Wall's middle name is Hildred (yikes), which leads me to believe he had a terrible childhood.
As the #1 pick in the 2010 NBA draft, he signed a 4 year/24 million deal which back-loaded so that he will make 7.5 million in 2013-2014. The figure below figure shows how John Wall stacks up against all NBA players and subsection of PGs in terms of salary. Expect this graphic to change significantly after 2014.
2012 AVERAGE SALARY RANKINGS
As the #1 pick in 2010, His career average since entering the NBA are 16 points and 8 assists per game. He has explosive leaping ability, speed to kill and is a creative finisher but most importantly when he is on the floor we score more and win more than we do without him. Which is especially scary when you look at our overall record below. Like really scary.
The bad? His jump shot and turnover rate. I'm not talking about 3 pointers either because that's non-existent. His mid-range game has not developed since arriving from UK 3 years ago; and this was his biggest question mark coming out of college! But he does love certain areas of the floor (the left-corner, right-elbow and any shots around the rim). What does this mean? Generally if your missing that many jump shots straight at the basket, there is a MAJOR flaw in your form.
On the season, Washington is 14-12 in games that Wall has played in 2013.
2012: 20-46 (lockout shortened season)
2011: 23-59 (Wall played in 69 games)
According to Bleacher Report, "In the five games after the All-Star break, he's looked more like a fringe starter than a potential cornerstone piece. He's averaging just 10.2 points per game on an atrocious 29.6 field-goal percentage. His assists haven't abandoned his stat sheet (7.6 per game), but he's cancelled out more than half of them with careless turnovers (4.6 per game)."
So this is a difficult decision. Especially when you have Brandon Beal and another lottery pick in June 2013 to evaluate. If I were GM of the Wizards I would try to sign him to an extension now (while his stock is relatively low), because he has the potential to have a monster contract year. Wall will be a year removed from knee surgery and a year older (remember he was 19 when he came into the league).
Top 5 Point Guards NBA
1. Chris Paul - $17,779,458
2. Russell Westbrook - $13,668,793
3. Tony Parker -$12,500,000
4. Rajon Rondo - $11,000,000
5. Derrick Rose - $16,402,500
But Wall isn't elite. So who does compare? Ty Lawson. Stop laughing. Not done yet? It's ok, I'll wait.
Unless your a UNC, Denver and/or avid NBA fan, you don't know him. He is a less talented, smallish but productive PG that signed a deal last offseason for 4 years/48 million with Denver. Lawson's deal (12 mill per year) is the measuring stick for John Wall's next contract. Why? Last year Lawson averaged 16 points and nearly 7 assists per game in 2012 which are identical to Wall's career averages. Oh and there is one more thing: his career average from 3 point land is 38.8%. Wall? 22%. Which basically means he could not hit the ocean if he was standing on a boat.
Being that Wall is a former #1 pick (and Lawson was picked 18th), his agent (Dan Fegan) will probably negotiate for a MAX contract (approximately 20+ mill per season over 5 years). The reasons? Wall has a higher ceiling than Lawson, better metrics, better overall career numbers except for 3 pt shooting (Wall is not a one-year wonder) and the Wizards are building their team around him (it would be devastating to see him sign somewhere else and realize his potential). But the Wizards would be foolish to succumb to a MAX offer unless he improves his turnover ratio, mid-range game and 3 pt shot significantly by the end of the 2013-2014 season. Even then it's a huge commitment. They can also pick up an option for a 5th year of his rookie contract at 9 mill, but then he is an unrestricted free agent in 2015. The earliest they can extend him is October 2013.
Resign him YES, give him a MAX deal? HELL NO. Worst case scenario pick up his 2014-2015 option at 9 mill and let him test the free agent market in the summer of 2015.
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