Alex Ovechkin: Is trading him an option?

There is so much to like about the superstar Caps winger. His size, speed, skating, stick/puck handling, scoring ability, checking and energy are emblematic of a NHL team captain. He was infamously given the keys to the city by the mayor of Washington D.C. in 2008. His talent is undeniable.

However, his play this season suggests either he is nursing an injury, was totally out of shape entering the NHL season or is fatigued by playing a lot of games for club and country. As you get older, your body tends to suffer more if you are not in peak physical condition entering a season, you cannot rely on talent alone. In a lockout shortened season, players have a longer offseason (which means more time to spend at Russia House, eat like a glutton and work on your golf game). Also, the departure of Alexander Semin may have had a psychological effect and allowed teams to key in on the first line more aggressively.

In any case, his decline in production has been startling over the last two years. For this analysis, lets look at his total points per season (combined number of goals and assists). Based on his start this year, the downward trend seems likely to continue. If we project his numbers for this year over an 80 game season, he would be at approximately 64 points. In his first 5 years he averaged a whopping 106 points per year just about split evenly between goals and assists. In his last two years, he has averaged 75 points per year and his goal numbers are way down (35 per year). 

Lets backtrack to the tipping point. Two years ago, Bruce Boudreau was forced to bench Ovechkin late in a game because of his poor play. As he was skating off the ice, he allegedly called Boudreau a "fat f&$k." Boudreau (with the support of the organization at the time) was trying to send a message that every player is accountable regardless of salary or name value. It was disrespectful and wrong of Ovechkin to call out his coach now matter how frustrated he felt. Less than a month later he was fired by Washington because they needed a different "voice" (but it was obvious he fell out of favor with certain players in the Capitals lockerroom). Boudreau had an incredible 70% win percentage during the regular season playing an up-tempo, exciting offensive style over his 4-year tenure in Washington. On his 4th coach in a stellar 8 year career and two in the last 14 months, there has been no improvement. In fact, he looks to have severely regressed and the team's results reflect that.

Nobody in Washington wants to hear this but it may be time for the Great 8 to be traded. A change in scenery would be good for him and may reignite his passion and productivity. He is making 9 million per season and we could use the cap space and the draft picks that would come with a trade. You don't want to sell him low, he still has potential but if the negative pattern continues his stock will certainly be reevaluated. Contending NHL teams looking for a major boost would pay through the nose to acquire the talented winger. In addition, based on our play this year our team has many needs and the 2013 draft class has good top-end talent. It's time to blow up and rebuild. Pull the trigger Mr. McPhee (GM) or else you may join the ranks of America's unemployed.

"So for teams really struggling through the first two weeks of play – are you listening fans of Calgary, Columbus, Phoenix, Florida and Washington (for now) – it means you have the highest odds of selecting a really high-end talent that can become a franchise cornerstone for 15-plus years." 

-Brian Costello | The Hockey News – Tue, Feb 5, 2013